Garcia vs Colon: The Optimal Fifth Starter?

Despite the fact that opening day is only one week way, manager Joe Girardi hasn't yet finalized the Yankees' pitching rotation.  The first three starters will undoubtedly be C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes; Ivan Nova in all likelihood will take the fourth slot.  But the fifth slot in New York's starting pitching rotation is still very much up for grabs.  The two pitchers vying for the last slot appear to be Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia.  Both veteran pitchers were signed to low-risk, high reward deals after being discarded by the rest of the MLB due to age, inactivity (in Colon's case), and seemingly ineffectiveness (in Garcia's case).  After a competitive spring training and a multitude of innings pitched by both veterans, Girardi's decision hadn't become any easier.  Garcia, who was the clear favorite to win the position, faltered while Colon, who wasn't given much of a chance to make the team, thrived.  While Garcia still seems to be the favorite, Colon has closed the gap between the two and has left the Yankee organization with quite a conundrum: Should Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon be the fifth starter?

Freddy Garcia signed a $1.5 million dollar contract with the Yankees in hopes of contributing to the 27 time World Championship franchise.  After posting a solid 2010 campaign, with a 12-6 record and an ERA of 4.64 in 157 innings pitched, it seemed as though Garcia would be a viable option for the diminished Yankee rotation.  Garcia, 35, is a former All-Star known for his experience and reliability.  Even after season-ending shoulder surgery (in 2007) reduced the velocity of his fastball from around 93 MPH to 87 MPH, he still managed to get American League hitters out through craftiness.  Because of his perceived durability, Garcia was tabbed as the likely fifth starter for the 2011 Yankees.  A tumultuous spring training has somewhat shaken this conviction, however, as his stats are anything but promising.  His ERA swelled to 5.93 (in 13.2 innings pitched) after getting lit up by the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday.  His command, which was a strength during the bulk of his career, has become precarious and unreliable, raising eyebrows in the Yankee dugout.  Despite this, Garcia is still the favorite heading into opening day due to having proven that he can compete at a high a level (based on his statistics from last season).

Bartolo Colon has not pitched in the major leagues since July of 2009 due to a significant elbow injury.  This, coupled with the fact that Colon admitted to being 30 plus pounds overweight made many fans wonder what was GM Brian Cashman's logic for signing this washed up, corpulent has-been.  Colon was quick to dispel his doubters, however, after a wildly successful spring-training campaign.  He has posted an exceptional ERA of 2.40 in 15 innings pitched and has an incredible K/BB ratio of 17:1.  The resurgence of his fastball has also been completely unexpected, as it jumped in velocity and consistently reaches 93 MPH.  These statistics would normally make Colon the clear favorite to win the final spot, but Yankee management is unsure of Colon's stamina: they doubt he can last for the entire season.

I believe that the Yankees should in fact make Bartolo Colon, instead of Freddy Garcia, the fifth starter.  Colon looks eminently better than Garcia, and his fastball is closer to its 2005 form, where Colon won the Cy Young Award.  Also, the Yankees shouldn't worry about his stamina because they only need him to last until the trade-deadline.  By July 31st, the Yankees in all likelihood will obtain another starter via trade in order to plug up any holes in the pitching staff.  Until then, let Colon turn back the clocks to 2005.