Beasts of the East: Yankees vs Boston Comparison (Part III)

Last week's analysis proved that despite the fact that Boston acquired marquee hitters Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Yankees have the better lineup.  But with Andy Pettitte now retired, the Yankees pitching staff has come under intense scrutiny for its perceived lack of reliability.  Which team's starting rotation is better?  In this week's comparison, we find out:

**(the rotations for both teams have not yet been finalized; these rotations are estimations of the eventually opening-day roster)**

#1 Starter:

Yankees: C.C. Sabathia

Red Sox: Jon Lester

The unequivocal ace of the Yankee pitching staff, Carsten Charles Sabathia, looks to have another strong season to follow up on his excellent 2010 campaign.  Last year, the big lefty led the Major Leagues in wins (21) and had a very impressive ERA of 3.18 (a feat in itself, considering the fact that C.C. pitches in the brutal A.L. East).  What's most impressive about C.C.'s All-Star 2010 campaign was that he battled through a nagging knee injury for much of the season and still managed to display Cy Young credentials.  In the off-season, Sabathia underwent knee surgery and dropped 25 lbs, so its pretty same to assume that the phenomenal pitcher should be ready for another great season in 2011.  Jon Lester, much like Sabathia, is another lefty-ace.  The 2010 All-Star is coming off his best season, where he finished with 19 wins (second in the A.L.) and an ERA of 3.25 (ninth in the A.L.).  Lester also has a penchant for striking out a multitude of batters, and in 2010 he struck out 225 batters in only 208 innings pitched (strikeout per 9 inning ratio of 9.736; first in the American League).  Look for more of the same from Lester come 2011.

Edge:
push (neither)

These two lefty-aces have very similar numbers and pitching styles, and are both equally reliable.  Sabathia has more experience and a tad more consistency but Lester is younger and strikes out more batters.  Both pitchers are phenomenal number one starters regardless and neither one has a particular edge on the other.

#2 Starter:
Yankees: Phil Hughes
Red Sox: Clay Buchholz


Phil Hughes came out of the gate exceptionally strong in 2010.  For the first two months of the season, Hughes was as dominant as any pitcher.  He was striking out batters, and winning nearly every game he pitched.  By the All-Star Break, he had a fantastic record of 11-2, with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.178 (he was named to the All-Star Team because of these numbers).  Hughes' wasn't nearly as effective in the second half, however (7-6 record, 4.90 ERA).  Hughes' arm seemed to tire out down the stretch, and as a result, his velocity dipped and his control was disrupted.  The Yankee faithful should be wary of Hughes should he tire out prematurely in 2011.  Clay Buchholz, much like Hughes, is a young fire-baller with much potential who also had an All-Star season in 2010.  Buchholz, however, was consistently dominant throughout the season.  He finished the season with 17 wins and an absolutely incredible ERA of 2.33 (second in the A.L.).  Buchholz has become the new rising star in Boston, and, if he matches his 2010 numbers, should create a buzz in Boston.

Edge:
Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz has a significant edge over Phil Hughes.  Hughes showed that his stamina is sub-par, and, with the Yankees canceling his inning limitations, is expected to pitch a full season.  If he wears down by August, the Yankees will be in peril.  Also, Hughes' performances are largely dependent on the umpires calling the games.  If they give him the outside corner, he dominates.  If they don't, he struggles.  Buchholz, on the other hand, is far more consistent and has overall better "stuff" than Hughes.


#3 Starter:
Yankees: A.J. Burnett
Red Sox: Josh Beckett

Though A.J Burnett would like to forget about 2010, Yankee fans will need to see a stellar performance from the 34 year old right-hander in order to truly forgive and forget.  Burnett's 2010 campaign was one of the worst in the entire history of the New York Yankees.  His ERA of 5.26 was one of the worst a Yankee pitcher ever had when pitching that many innings (186.2).  It's infuriating to see a pitcher like him struggle; his "stuff" is electric.  If Burnett can get back to his normal career numbers (which are actually quite good: 3.99 ERA, 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), then his abysmal performance will be forgotten.  If not, then the Yankees are in trouble because much of their success rests on the arm of the big man from Arkansas.  Josh Beckett, like Burnett, is also coming off a very poor season.  His ERA was actually higher than Burnett's (5.78).  Unlike Burnett, Beckett actually has a legitimate excuse to his poor season: he was stymied by injuries.  He only pitched in 21 games and 127.2 innings; it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see the former All-Star bounce back.

Edge:
Josh Beckett

Beckett is younger and has been known to overcome adversity with more ease than Burnett.  Because of this, he gets the edge.  There's no other way to put it: A.J. Burnett was absolutely awful last season.  If his 2011 campaign is anything like his 2010 one, than the Yankees' chances of going to the playoffs decrease drastically.


#4 Starter:
Yankees: Ivan Nova
Red Sox: John Lackey

Because of Andy Pettitte's retirement, unproven rookie Ivan Nova has been given (probably) the critical position of the Yankees' fourth starter.  Yankee scouts liked what they say from Nova last year.  What they saw, however, was only a small sample size of a still unproven pitcher.  Nova only threw 42 innings last year.  Because of this, it's anyone's guess as to how the 24 year old will pitch in his first full season in the Majors (under a lot of pressure, no less).  As opposed to Nova, John Lackey is a veteran known for his reliability.  Lackey has pitched in 200+ innings five times.  He also has a respectable career ERA of 3.89.  Unfortunately for Lackey, his numbers dipped upon moving to the hard-hitting American League East (2010 was his first season in Boston after previously playing his entire career for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim).

Edge: John Lackey

John Lackey has a notable edge over Ivan Nova.  Nova is an unproven rookie, while Lackey is a durable workhorse with All-Star credentials.

#5 Starter:
Yankees: Sergio Mitre/Freddy Garcia/Bartolo Colon
Red Sox: Daisuke Matsuzaka
The fifth spot in the Yankee rotation is up for grabs.  Unfortunately, three mediocre (at best) journeymen are in contention for the spot.  Sergio Mitre had an alright season in 2010, but it may have solely been due to the fact that he was pitching in easy, non-pressure situations.  Freddy Garcia actually had a 12 win season last year, but his high ERA (4.64), advanced age (he'll be 36 in June), and major drop in velocity may very well prevent him from being an effective pitcher in 2011.  Bartolo Colon is a former Cy Young Award winner.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, that was in 2005.  Colon hasn't pitched in a full season since.  In fact, he hasn't even pitched in the majors since 2009.  Matsuzaka, the former phenom Japanese pitcher, is mercurial, as is his wont.  He is coming off a mediocre season (9-6, 4.69 ERA), but he has been effective in the past.

Edge: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Neither Mitre, Garcia nor Colon can match Matsuzaka.  While none of these four pitchers inspire much confidence, Matsuzaka is still more reliable than the consistently mediocre Mitre, the decrepit Garcia, and the has-been Colon.

While the hitting lineups of both teams were somewhat even, the starting rotations aren't even in the same stratosphere.  The Red Sox clearly have the better rotation, as the Yankees are emaciated by mediocrity and unreliability.  The Red Sox have plenty of reliable veterans, and are eminently superior to the Yankees in terms of starting pitching.