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Sunday, February 27, 2011

My 2011 AL East Projected standings

For the last decade or so, the AL East has been the unequivocal powerhouse division of the MLB.  The division's strength has been derived primarily from the Yankees and Red Sox (two perennial contenders), and, in recent years, from the upstart Tampa Bay Rays as well.  It seems that the already dominant division will get even better this season, however, as the Baltimore Orioles, the Red Sox and Yankees' punching bag of the last decade and a half, have made several key additions to their roster this off-season and now appear to be a tough opponent.  Add in the always competitive Blue Jays, and the AL East becomes even better, a scary thought for the rest of baseball.  By comparing the pitching, hitting, off-season acquisitions, and bullpens of each team, I will predict the final 2011 standings for the AL East:

2010 AL East Standings:     Wins:     Loses:     Win%     GB:
Tampa Bay Rays:                   96          96          .593         --
New York Yankees:               95          67          .586          1
Boston Red Sox:                    89          73          .549          7
Toronto Blue Jays:                 85          77          .525         11
Baltimore Orioles:                 66          96          .407         30


(My prediction)

2011 AL East Standings:     Wins:     Loses:     Win%     GB:

Boston Red Sox:                     96          66          .593         --
New York Yankees:                91          71          .562          5
Tampa Bay Rays:                   84          78          .519        12
Toronto Blue Jays:                 83          79          .512         13
Baltimore Orioles:                 80          82          .494         16

Boston Red Sox:
Lineup:    A
Bullpen:   B+
Rotation:  A-
Off-season: A-

The Red Sox are quite possibly the most well-rounded team in baseball, and if they didn't have to play each of these competitive teams 18 times, they would in all likelihood be a 100 plus win team.  Unfortunately, they do.  Hence, the 96 wins.  Still, they are the team to fear heading into the season.  The free agent acquisitions made by Boston bolstered their already solid team tremendously (Crawford, Gonzalez,  Jenks, Wheeler), and had they not let All-Star catcher Victor Martinez sign with Detroit, they would have gotten a perfect A+ in that category.  As much as it pains a die-hard Yankee fan like me to say it, expect a lot out of Boston in 2011.


New York Yankees:
Lineup:   A+
Bullpen:  A+
Rotation: C
Off-season: D

The Yankees head in to 2011 with plenty of question marks.  They have the best lineup in baseball, and their bullpen is just as fearsome.  Despite this, they're pitching rotation is highly vulnerable, which prevents them from being the favorites to win the division.  Their offseason receives a D because they were neither able to sign Cliff Lee nor keep Andy Pettitte from retiring.  If their rotation can just pitch consistently adequate, however, then their high powered offense and bullpen and take care of the rest, allowing them to possibly contend for the division.


Tampa Bay Rays:
Lineup:   B
Bullpen: C-
Rotation: A-
Off-season: C-

The small market Rays cannot sustain themselves (financially) for an extended period of time.  Because of this, Rays ownership was forced to reduce the team payroll (which was at an all-time high) after 2010.  Their off-season fire sale essentially stripped them off their entire bullpen, and caused them to part with their All-Star outfielder, Carl Crawford.  Despite this, the Rays still have potential.  They added to reliable bats in Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to compensate for the losses of Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Jason Bartlett.  Also, although the loss of Matt Garza will put a noticeable dent in their pitching, their rotation will still be very good, as top prospect Jeremy Hellickson will take Garza's place.  Look for the Rays to hang tough throughout the season.


Toronto Blue Jays:


Lineup:   B-
Bullpen:  B
Rotation: B
Off-season: B+

Toronto surprised many in 2011.  The team led the majors in home runs, and their pitching was also solid.  Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos miraculously unloaded the albatross-like contract of overpaid and underachieving Vernon Wells, therefore making their off-season a success.  In addition, Anthopoulos added speed (in the form of Rajai Davis) and bullpen strength (Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel) to compensate for the loss of Shaun Marcum and Scott Downs.  Their phenom prospect Kyle Drabek will vie for a spot in the rotation as well.  In all, they aren't particularly weak in any category, making them a team capable of winning around 85 wins.


Baltimore Orioles:


Lineup:  A-
Bullpen:  C-
Rotation: B-
Off-season: B+

In an attempt to revitalize an organization in desperate need of a face lift, Baltimore management stocked up their lineup with dangerous hitters.  Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee and J.J. Hardy add talent and experience to an already solid Baltimore offense.  Kevin Gregg and Justin Duchscherer also add stability to the pitching core.  This, in addition to Buck Showalter's talented management (he went 34-23 to finish out last season), has Baltimore poised to finish at .500 for the first time since 1997.  Expect Showalter to win his third Manager of the Year Award in 2011.

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