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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Beasts of the East: Yankees vs Boston Comparison (Part IV)

Last week's comparison shed light on the emaciated Yankee starting rotation.  It also has become evident that the Boston starting pitching is vastly superior to the Yankee staff in terms of reliability and talent.  Despite this, the Yankee bullpen has already been proclaimed as the best in baseball.  With new addition Rafael Soriano adding his credentials to a 'pen that already houses Mariano River, New York seems poised to live up to this claim.  How do the bullpens of the two AL East heavyweights compare?  In the final comparison, we find out...


Closer:
Yankees: Mariano Rivera
Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon

Mariano Rivera is truly a wonder to behold.  The All-Time ERA leader, Rivera, 41, seems to laugh in the face of Father Time.  His game has not diminished at all since he stormed into the MLB in 1995.  On the contrary, it seems like he gets better with age.  This is a scary thought, considering the fact that Mariano Rivera was already considered the best closer of All-Time around 6 years ago.  In 2010, Rivera had another phenomenal season and, in what seems to be inevitable every year, earned a trip to the All-Star game.  The 11-time All-Star recorded 33 saves in 66 innings pitched, and had an immaculate ERA of 1.80.  Incredibly, Rivera struck out 45 batters and only walked 11 others.  The question of "How long can Mariano keep it up?" is moot; look for him to have another great year in 2011.  Papelbon's 2010 season was vastly different from Rivera's.  It seems that the Boston pundits' fear of Papelbon burning out quickly was realized: Papelbon had an abysmal season.  Pabelpon had 8 blown saves, 7 losses, and a high ERA (for a closer) of 3.90, a career worst.  Pabelbon has a lot to prove to the Red Sox if he wants to remain their closer, as it seems that Daniel Bard is more than ready to take his place.

Edge:
Mariano Rivera

Mariano Rivera is unarguably better than Pabelbon, and is still the best closer in baseball.  Age is not a factor in judging Rivera.  His cutter (one of the nastiest pitches ever thrown) still chops up more wood than a lumberjack, and his control seems to improve with age.  Pabelbon, on the other hand, seems to be losing his stuff.  His fastball's velocity had dropped about 3 MPH last season, and because of this, he has become far easier to hit.


Setup Man:
Yankees: Rafael Soriano
Red Sox: Daniel Bard

In his first season in pinstripes, Rafael Soriano looks to repeat his dominant 2010 campaign (league high 45 saves, 1.75 ERA, .802 WHIP).  Soriano has been consistently good throughout his career, so its pretty safe to assume he will become an excellent bridge to Mariano.  Bard, like Soriano, had an incredible season last year.  In only his second season in the Majors, the 25 year old with the golden arm became one of the most feared relievers in baseball.  He recorded 76 strikeouts in 74.2 innings pitched (9.2 K's per 9 innings), and had an excellent ERA of 1.93.  What's more incredible is his fastball, which can hit 101 MPH.  Hitters will be wary of Bard come opening day.

Edge:
Neither (push)

Both pitchers are top echelon relievers with incredible "stuff".  Likewise, both had identical stats in 2010.  Therefore, neither has an edge over the other.  Both should have All-Star caliber seasons in 2011.


Middle Relief:
Yankees: David Robertson
Red Sox: Bobby Jenks

David Robertson has been affectionately called "Houdini" by his teammates after he miraculously pitched out of a bases-loaded, no out situation against the Twins in the 2009 ALDS.  Since then, the young 25 year old has blossomed into a reliable reliever.  Robertson overcame a rough start in 2010, and had a superb second half (61.1 innings pitched, 3.82 ERA, 71 K's in 2010).  Robertson has an incrdible knack of striking out batters (10.4 k's per 9 innings).  In fact, his strikeout per 9 inning ratio of 13 in 2009 was the best in the majors.  Look for Robertson to stabilize the 7th inning this season.  Bobby Jenk's season was not as glamorous as Robrtson's.  The former All-Star posted career worsts in ERA (4.44) and WHIP (1.367).  In his first season in Boston, Jenks looks to rebound.

Edge:
David Robertson

Bobby Jenks is a well known pitcher.  Because of this, people might impulsively believe him to be better than the relatively unknown Robertson.  The fact of the matter is, however, that Robertson is a pitcher of the same mold as Jenks who had a better 2010.  He is also 4 years younger.  Therefore, he has the advantage.


Long Relief:
Yankees: Joba Chamberlain (probably)
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield

In all likelihood Joba Chamberlain will serve as both a long relief and middle relief pitcher in 2011.  Considering what he was poised to become, however, has made him a huge disappointment.  In 2007, Joba was nigh unhittable, and was thought of as the heir apparent of Mariano.  After a shoulder injury in 2008, his pitches decreased in effectiveness.  Since then, he has became a shell of his former self.  In 2010, he recorded an ERA of 4.40 in 71.2 innings pitched, with 77 strikeouts.  He still has a penchant for striking out batters, but has suffered from severe inconsistency.  Wakefield, like Joba, had a lackluster season in 2010.  The 43 year old had an awful ERA of 5.34 in 140 innings pitched last season.  The knuckleballer has never been particularly dominant at any point in his career either (4.38 career ERA), so expect an average season from him in 2011.

Edge:
Joba Chamberlain

Neither pitchers are particularly good, but Joba is far younger and has more potential.  Hence, he gets the advantage.  If Joba can somehow turn back the clock to 2007, then the Yankees' bullpen will be untouchable.


Specialists:
Yankees: Boone Logan/Pedro Feliciano
Red Sox: Dan Wheeler/Scott Atchison
Lefties Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano will serve as the specialist tandem in the Yankee bullpen.  Logan, 25, had a surprise season in 2010.  In his first year in pinstripes, Logan posted a fantastic ERA of 2.93, and struck out 38 batters and only gave up 37 hits in 40 innings pitched.  Feliciano is a reliable workhorse.  he has led the National League (he was a Met) in games played for the last 3 years.  He also has a good career ERA of 3.31 and is a known inning eater.  Expect much of the same from him this season.  Dan Wheeler, although a righty, will serve as a lefty specialist for the Red Sox.  In 2010, lefties only batted .154 against Wheeler.  Last year, while pitching for the Rays, Wheeler recorded a more than adequate ERA of 3.35.  Wheeler should get consistent work out of the Red Sox 'pen in 2011.  Atchison will likely be the main lefty in the Red Sox Bullpen (unless Felix Doubront usurps his position).  In 2010, he had an ERA of 4.50 in 60 innings pitched.  The 34 year old will see limited action in 2011.

Edge:
Boone Logan/Pedro Feliciano

The Yankee tandem of lefties is vastly superior to the Boston specialists.  Young Boone Logan made strides last year, as his velocity increased and his WHIP improved considerably; Feliciano is one of the most reliable relievers in baseball.  With these two sharing the roles, the Yankees should have no problem getting tough lefty hitters out.


Upon careful scrutiny, it's clear that the Yankees do indeed have the better bullpen.  The Red Sox bullpen is by no means bad, but the New York 'pen is quite possibly the best bullpen in baseball (on paper).  That's a good thing considering the fact that the bullpen will likely have its hands full bailing out the rotation.


OVERALL:
The numerous comparisons made during the past four weeks reveal that the Yankees have a slightly better lineup and a better bullpen, while the Red Sox have a vastly superior rotation.  Because of the discrepancy in starting pitching, Boston gets the overall edge over the Yankees in terms of ability.  Had Andy Pettitte not retired, this might have have been a different story.  Unfortunately for the Yanks, he did.  Therefore, their rotation lost a key cog and has become considerably weaker because of this loss.  Although they are the weaker team, the Yankees are in no way totally eclipsed by the Red Sox, as some experts would have you believe.  They are still a dangerous team capable of 93 plus wins.  Overall, I predict the Yankees to have 92 wins in 2011 and Boston to have 96 wins.

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