Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Soriano's lack of control nullifies C.C.'s Gem: Did Girardi's Decision blow the game?
Riding on the masterful pitching performance of C.C. Sabathia and a pair of home runs by Mark Teixeira (a 3-run shot) and Andruw Jones (a solo shot), the Yankees were poised to win over their perennial victims, the Minnesota Twins last night. Up 4-0 in the eighth inning after C.C. retired the last 17 batters he faced ( 7 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 SO), Girardi brought in his volatile $35 million dollar set-up man, Rafael Soriano, to the bewilderment of fans and analysts alike. In a manner similar to Joe Torre's rigid (and arguably ineffective) bullpen formula, Girardi it absolutely necessary to bring in his second best reliever in an unnecessary manner. When asked about his questionable decision, Girardi merely responded: "Soriano is our eighth-inning guy". With this mentality, Soriano's arm and notoriously low patience will be depleted by July, and their $35 million dollar investment will be wasted. It's not like Girardi's bullpen was depleted of pitchers either. Did Girardi really not trust David Robertson enough to bring him in with 4-0 lead? The baseball pundits have touted the Yankee bullpen as the class of the MLB. This is in no small part due to the relievers not named Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano, David Robertson included. Robertson has been an effective hurler for the Yankees in the last two years. His strikeout per 9 inning ratio is phenomenal, and ranks among the best in the entire majors (his k/9 inning ratio of 13 in 2009 led the MLB), and has been far more consistent than Joba Chamberlain, who has been named the 7th inning pitcher by Girardi. Robertson pitching the 8th seems like a far more reasonable decision, as this saves Soriano's arm and quells his noticeably sour attitude regarding pitching in unfavorable conditions. To Soriano, pitching in non-pressure situations is tedious and unnecessary. While this attitude is certainly unacceptable for a professional athlete, in this situation it actually makes sense to bow to Soriano's wishes and not pitch him. There was no need to bring in your set-up man in a game like this, and ultimately, it cost C.C. a win.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
My 2011 Yankees Projected Statistics
2010 Lineup: Statistics:
2011 Projected Lineup and Statistics:
2011 Projected Rotation Statistics:
2011 Projected Bullpen Statistics:
Here are my predictions for the 2011 New York Yankee roster. While the sabermetricians will probably just laugh at these numbers, as they are based on my intuition from past seasons rather than on meticulously statistical analysis, I have faith that they will stay relatively true to the actually statistics of 2011. A couple of observations:
- Derek Jeter SS 157 G 663 AB .270 AVG 10 HR 67 RBI 111 R .340 OBP
- Nick Swisher RF 150 G 566 AB .288 AVG 29 HR 89 RBI 91 R .359 OBP
- Mark Teixeira 1B 158 G 601 AB .256 AVG 33 HR 108 RBI 113 R .365 OBP
- Alex Rodriguez 3B 137 G 522 AB .270 AVG 30 HR 125 RBI 74 R .341 OBP
- Robinson Cano 2B 160 G 626 AB .319 AVG 29 HR 109 RBI 103 R .381 OBP
- Jorge Posada DH 120 G 383 AB .248 AVG 18 HR 57 RBI 49 R .357 OBP
- Curtis Granderson CF 136 G 466 AB .247 AVG 24 HR 67 RBI 76 R .324 OBP
- Francisco Cervelli C 93 G 266 AB .271 AVG 0 HR 38 RBI 27 R .359 OBP
- Brett Gardner LF 150 G 477 AB .277 AVG 5 HR 47 RBI 97 R .383 OBP
- C.C. Sabathia 34 GS 237.2 IP 21 W 7 L 3.18 ERA 1.191 WHIP 197 SO
- Andy Pettitte 21 GS 129 IP 11 W 3 L 3.28 ERA 1.271 WHIP 101 SO
- A.J. Burnett 33 GS 186.2 IP 10 W 15 L 5.26 ERA 1.511 WHIP 145 SO
- Phil Hughes 29 GS 176.1 IP 18 W 8 L 4.18 ERA 1.248 WHIP 146 SO
- Javier Vazquez 26 GS 157.1 IP 10 W 10 L 5.32 ERA 1.398 WHIP 121 SO
- Mariano Rivera CL 61 G 60 IP 3 W 3 L 1.80 ERA .833 WHIP 45 SO
- Joba Chamberlain RP 73 G 71.2 IP 3 W 4 L 4.40 ERA 1.298 WHIP 77 SO
- David Robertson RP 64 G 61.1 IP 4 W 5 L 3.82 ERA 1.500 WHIP 71 SO
- Boone Logan LS 51 G 40 IP 2 W 0 L 2.93 ERA 1.350 WHIP 38 SO
- Chad Gaudin LR 30 G 48 IP 1 W 2 L 4.50 ERA 1.375 WHIP 33 SO
- Sergio Mitre LR 27 G 54 IP 0 W 3 L 3.33 ERA 1.093 WHIP 29 SO
- Kerry Wood SM 24 G 26 IP 2 W 0 L 0.69 ERA 1.231 WHIP 31 SO
2011 Projected Lineup and Statistics:
- Brett Gardner LF 143 G 589 AB .284 AVG 4 HR 61 RBI 114 R .391 OBP
- Derek Jeter SS 149 G 592 AB .307 AVG 16 HR 76 RBI 102 R 378 OBP
- Mark Teixeira 1B 154 G 599 AB .286 AVG 35 HR 114 RBI 99 R .381 OBP
- Alex Rodriguez 3B 147 G 556 AB .304 AVG 41 HR 132 RBI 101 R .403 OBP
- Robinson Cano 2B 161 G 629 AB .314 AVG 30 HR 104 RBI 97 R .380 OBP
- Nick Swisher RF 153 G 569 AB .274 AVG 27 HR 84 RBI 88 R .364 OBP
- Jorge Posada DH 138 G 466 AB .276 AVG 23 HR 71 RBI 72 R .361 OBP
- Curtis Granderson CF 145 G 578 AB .271 AVG 32 HR 83 RBI 85 R .342 OBP
- Russell Martin C 133 G 452 AB .268 AVG 14 HR 62 RBI 63 R .363 OBP
2011 Projected Rotation Statistics:
- C.C. Sabathia 34 GS 231.1 IP 19 W 7 L 3.24 ERA 1.199 WHIP 193 SO
- A.J. Burnett 32 GS 196.2 IP 14 W 10 L 4.21 ERA 1.398 WHIP 179 SO
- Phil Hughes 32 GS 194.1 IP 16 W 9 L 4.11 ERA 1.244 WHIP 188 SO
- Ivan Nova 27 GS 164.2 IP 12 W 9 L 4.32 ERA 1.315 WHIP 139 SO
- Freddy Garcia 23 GS 159.1 IP 11 W 8 L 4.69 ERA 1.401 WHIP 102 SO
2011 Projected Bullpen Statistics:
- Mariano Rivera CL 64 G 60.2 IP 4 W 3 L 1.96 ERA .951 WHIP 42 SO
- Rafael Soriano SM 71 G 73.1 IP 5 W 3 L 2.37 ERA 1.093 WHIP 76 SO
- David Robertson RP 65 G 63.1 IP 6 W 4 L 3.11 ERA 1.390 WHIP 73 SO
- Boone Logan LS 42 G 37.2 IP 1 W 2 L 3.91 ERA 1.341 WHIP 35 SO
- Joba Chamberlain RP 58 G 60.1 IP 3 W 4 L 3.61 ERA 1.283 WHIP 66 SO
- Pedro Feliciano LS 64 G 51 IP 2 W 1 L 3.35 ERA 1.402 WHIP 49 SO
- Bartolo Colon LR 35 G 79 IP 8 W 4 L 3.89 ERA 1.391 WHIP 70 SO
Here are my predictions for the 2011 New York Yankee roster. While the sabermetricians will probably just laugh at these numbers, as they are based on my intuition from past seasons rather than on meticulously statistical analysis, I have faith that they will stay relatively true to the actually statistics of 2011. A couple of observations:
- A-Rod will have monster season:
- The Yankee Bullpen will dominate:
- The Yankees will have a far better season than the pundits' give them credit for:
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Garcia vs Colon: The Optimal Fifth Starter?
Despite the fact that opening day is only one week way, manager Joe Girardi hasn't yet finalized the Yankees' pitching rotation. The first three starters will undoubtedly be C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes; Ivan Nova in all likelihood will take the fourth slot. But the fifth slot in New York's starting pitching rotation is still very much up for grabs. The two pitchers vying for the last slot appear to be Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Both veteran pitchers were signed to low-risk, high reward deals after being discarded by the rest of the MLB due to age, inactivity (in Colon's case), and seemingly ineffectiveness (in Garcia's case). After a competitive spring training and a multitude of innings pitched by both veterans, Girardi's decision hadn't become any easier. Garcia, who was the clear favorite to win the position, faltered while Colon, who wasn't given much of a chance to make the team, thrived. While Garcia still seems to be the favorite, Colon has closed the gap between the two and has left the Yankee organization with quite a conundrum: Should Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon be the fifth starter?
Freddy Garcia signed a $1.5 million dollar contract with the Yankees in hopes of contributing to the 27 time World Championship franchise. After posting a solid 2010 campaign, with a 12-6 record and an ERA of 4.64 in 157 innings pitched, it seemed as though Garcia would be a viable option for the diminished Yankee rotation. Garcia, 35, is a former All-Star known for his experience and reliability. Even after season-ending shoulder surgery (in 2007) reduced the velocity of his fastball from around 93 MPH to 87 MPH, he still managed to get American League hitters out through craftiness. Because of his perceived durability, Garcia was tabbed as the likely fifth starter for the 2011 Yankees. A tumultuous spring training has somewhat shaken this conviction, however, as his stats are anything but promising. His ERA swelled to 5.93 (in 13.2 innings pitched) after getting lit up by the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday. His command, which was a strength during the bulk of his career, has become precarious and unreliable, raising eyebrows in the Yankee dugout. Despite this, Garcia is still the favorite heading into opening day due to having proven that he can compete at a high a level (based on his statistics from last season).
Bartolo Colon has not pitched in the major leagues since July of 2009 due to a significant elbow injury. This, coupled with the fact that Colon admitted to being 30 plus pounds overweight made many fans wonder what was GM Brian Cashman's logic for signing this washed up, corpulent has-been. Colon was quick to dispel his doubters, however, after a wildly successful spring-training campaign. He has posted an exceptional ERA of 2.40 in 15 innings pitched and has an incredible K/BB ratio of 17:1. The resurgence of his fastball has also been completely unexpected, as it jumped in velocity and consistently reaches 93 MPH. These statistics would normally make Colon the clear favorite to win the final spot, but Yankee management is unsure of Colon's stamina: they doubt he can last for the entire season.
I believe that the Yankees should in fact make Bartolo Colon, instead of Freddy Garcia, the fifth starter. Colon looks eminently better than Garcia, and his fastball is closer to its 2005 form, where Colon won the Cy Young Award. Also, the Yankees shouldn't worry about his stamina because they only need him to last until the trade-deadline. By July 31st, the Yankees in all likelihood will obtain another starter via trade in order to plug up any holes in the pitching staff. Until then, let Colon turn back the clocks to 2005.
Freddy Garcia signed a $1.5 million dollar contract with the Yankees in hopes of contributing to the 27 time World Championship franchise. After posting a solid 2010 campaign, with a 12-6 record and an ERA of 4.64 in 157 innings pitched, it seemed as though Garcia would be a viable option for the diminished Yankee rotation. Garcia, 35, is a former All-Star known for his experience and reliability. Even after season-ending shoulder surgery (in 2007) reduced the velocity of his fastball from around 93 MPH to 87 MPH, he still managed to get American League hitters out through craftiness. Because of his perceived durability, Garcia was tabbed as the likely fifth starter for the 2011 Yankees. A tumultuous spring training has somewhat shaken this conviction, however, as his stats are anything but promising. His ERA swelled to 5.93 (in 13.2 innings pitched) after getting lit up by the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday. His command, which was a strength during the bulk of his career, has become precarious and unreliable, raising eyebrows in the Yankee dugout. Despite this, Garcia is still the favorite heading into opening day due to having proven that he can compete at a high a level (based on his statistics from last season).
Bartolo Colon has not pitched in the major leagues since July of 2009 due to a significant elbow injury. This, coupled with the fact that Colon admitted to being 30 plus pounds overweight made many fans wonder what was GM Brian Cashman's logic for signing this washed up, corpulent has-been. Colon was quick to dispel his doubters, however, after a wildly successful spring-training campaign. He has posted an exceptional ERA of 2.40 in 15 innings pitched and has an incredible K/BB ratio of 17:1. The resurgence of his fastball has also been completely unexpected, as it jumped in velocity and consistently reaches 93 MPH. These statistics would normally make Colon the clear favorite to win the final spot, but Yankee management is unsure of Colon's stamina: they doubt he can last for the entire season.
I believe that the Yankees should in fact make Bartolo Colon, instead of Freddy Garcia, the fifth starter. Colon looks eminently better than Garcia, and his fastball is closer to its 2005 form, where Colon won the Cy Young Award. Also, the Yankees shouldn't worry about his stamina because they only need him to last until the trade-deadline. By July 31st, the Yankees in all likelihood will obtain another starter via trade in order to plug up any holes in the pitching staff. Until then, let Colon turn back the clocks to 2005.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The Vilification of Alex Rodriguez
Alex Rodriguez, or A-Rod, has, in recent years, become the pariah of professional baseball. Whether it's due to his incredible wealth (an absurd annual salary of $33 million), his chimerical and egotistical statements, or the outrageous situations that he seems to constantly get himself into, people love to hate Alex Rodriguez. The revelation that the superstar had also taken steroids earlier in his career further debilitated his image. In fact, even some Yankee fans admit to openly disliking Rodriguez. What many people fail to realize, however, is that they judge and deride the Alex of old. Since 2007, the year where he won the American League MVP for posting ridiculously good numbers, Alex has visibly tried to bring as little attention to himself as possible. He no longer made outlandishly arrogant statements, and, according to Tom Verducci and Joe Torre's, The Yankee Years, even tried to dress and act as "vanilla" (plain) as possible. While he still made mistakes at times (A-Rod's 2007 opt-out clause controversy and divorce of 2008), his attitude was discernibly changing for the better. Then, in 2009, when his use of performance enhancing drugs became exposed to the public, Alex realized that he truly needed to grow up. He also realized that despite all the controversy and headache he had caused them in the past, his teammates (noticeably Derek Jeter, whose past with Rodriguez has been rocky) were behind him. From that point forward, A-Rod put his own needs and desires aside and become a true team player. He ceased talking about his own personal achievements and stressed that he was now only concerned about both winning and his teammates. This in turn led to A-Rod's newfound love of baseball, and, because of this, he became eminently more enjoyable to watch. A-Rod's resurgence paid dividends for the Yankees in 2009. Despite missing a month of the season and battling a nagging hip injury, A-Rod in essence became the MVP of the Yankees. The team started winning as soon as he returned to the lineup that May, and A-Rod put to the sleep the not-so-quietly held belief that he was an unclutch player by belting clutch home run after clutch home run. In fact, his monstrous 2009 postseason campaign near singlehandedly carried the Yankees to the World Series. Also, his 2 run homer off Cole Hamels and RBI double off Phillie closer Brad Lidge in games three and four of the 2009 World Series were critical hits for the Yankees. Simply put, without Alex, the Yankees would not have won their 27th world championship. Therefore, people should begin to understand that the man they relish in scorning, Alex Rodriguez, is not the same egotistical windbag of 2006. Rather, he is a more focused athlete who only wants to win and enjoy playing the game he loves, much like the beloved idol of baseball, Derek Jeter. If you A-Rod haters are still unmoved by this argument, then that's fine. But to point fingers and disparage the man for such nonsensically frivolous matters like walking on a pitching mound or getting fed popcorn by a girlfriend is pure asinine.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
My 2011 AL East Projected standings
For the last decade or so, the AL East has been the unequivocal powerhouse division of the MLB. The division's strength has been derived primarily from the Yankees and Red Sox (two perennial contenders), and, in recent years, from the upstart Tampa Bay Rays as well. It seems that the already dominant division will get even better this season, however, as the Baltimore Orioles, the Red Sox and Yankees' punching bag of the last decade and a half, have made several key additions to their roster this off-season and now appear to be a tough opponent. Add in the always competitive Blue Jays, and the AL East becomes even better, a scary thought for the rest of baseball. By comparing the pitching, hitting, off-season acquisitions, and bullpens of each team, I will predict the final 2011 standings for the AL East:
2010 AL East Standings: Wins: Loses: Win% GB:
Tampa Bay Rays: 96 96 .593 --
New York Yankees: 95 67 .586 1
Boston Red Sox: 89 73 .549 7
Toronto Blue Jays: 85 77 .525 11
Baltimore Orioles: 66 96 .407 30
(My prediction)
2011 AL East Standings: Wins: Loses: Win% GB:
Boston Red Sox: 96 66 .593 --
New York Yankees: 91 71 .562 5
Tampa Bay Rays: 84 78 .519 12
Toronto Blue Jays: 83 79 .512 13
Baltimore Orioles: 80 82 .494 16
Boston Red Sox:
Lineup: A
Bullpen: B+
Rotation: A-
Off-season: A-
The Red Sox are quite possibly the most well-rounded team in baseball, and if they didn't have to play each of these competitive teams 18 times, they would in all likelihood be a 100 plus win team. Unfortunately, they do. Hence, the 96 wins. Still, they are the team to fear heading into the season. The free agent acquisitions made by Boston bolstered their already solid team tremendously (Crawford, Gonzalez, Jenks, Wheeler), and had they not let All-Star catcher Victor Martinez sign with Detroit, they would have gotten a perfect A+ in that category. As much as it pains a die-hard Yankee fan like me to say it, expect a lot out of Boston in 2011.
New York Yankees:
Lineup: A+
Bullpen: A+
Rotation: C
Off-season: D
The Yankees head in to 2011 with plenty of question marks. They have the best lineup in baseball, and their bullpen is just as fearsome. Despite this, they're pitching rotation is highly vulnerable, which prevents them from being the favorites to win the division. Their offseason receives a D because they were neither able to sign Cliff Lee nor keep Andy Pettitte from retiring. If their rotation can just pitch consistently adequate, however, then their high powered offense and bullpen and take care of the rest, allowing them to possibly contend for the division.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Lineup: B
Bullpen: C-
Rotation: A-
Off-season: C-
The small market Rays cannot sustain themselves (financially) for an extended period of time. Because of this, Rays ownership was forced to reduce the team payroll (which was at an all-time high) after 2010. Their off-season fire sale essentially stripped them off their entire bullpen, and caused them to part with their All-Star outfielder, Carl Crawford. Despite this, the Rays still have potential. They added to reliable bats in Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to compensate for the losses of Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Jason Bartlett. Also, although the loss of Matt Garza will put a noticeable dent in their pitching, their rotation will still be very good, as top prospect Jeremy Hellickson will take Garza's place. Look for the Rays to hang tough throughout the season.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Lineup: B-
Bullpen: B
Rotation: B
Off-season: B+
Toronto surprised many in 2011. The team led the majors in home runs, and their pitching was also solid. Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos miraculously unloaded the albatross-like contract of overpaid and underachieving Vernon Wells, therefore making their off-season a success. In addition, Anthopoulos added speed (in the form of Rajai Davis) and bullpen strength (Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel) to compensate for the loss of Shaun Marcum and Scott Downs. Their phenom prospect Kyle Drabek will vie for a spot in the rotation as well. In all, they aren't particularly weak in any category, making them a team capable of winning around 85 wins.
Baltimore Orioles:
Lineup: A-
Bullpen: C-
Rotation: B-
Off-season: B+
In an attempt to revitalize an organization in desperate need of a face lift, Baltimore management stocked up their lineup with dangerous hitters. Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee and J.J. Hardy add talent and experience to an already solid Baltimore offense. Kevin Gregg and Justin Duchscherer also add stability to the pitching core. This, in addition to Buck Showalter's talented management (he went 34-23 to finish out last season), has Baltimore poised to finish at .500 for the first time since 1997. Expect Showalter to win his third Manager of the Year Award in 2011.
2010 AL East Standings: Wins: Loses: Win% GB:
Tampa Bay Rays: 96 96 .593 --
New York Yankees: 95 67 .586 1
Boston Red Sox: 89 73 .549 7
Toronto Blue Jays: 85 77 .525 11
Baltimore Orioles: 66 96 .407 30
(My prediction)
2011 AL East Standings: Wins: Loses: Win% GB:
Boston Red Sox: 96 66 .593 --
New York Yankees: 91 71 .562 5
Tampa Bay Rays: 84 78 .519 12
Toronto Blue Jays: 83 79 .512 13
Baltimore Orioles: 80 82 .494 16
Boston Red Sox:
Lineup: A
Bullpen: B+
Rotation: A-
Off-season: A-
The Red Sox are quite possibly the most well-rounded team in baseball, and if they didn't have to play each of these competitive teams 18 times, they would in all likelihood be a 100 plus win team. Unfortunately, they do. Hence, the 96 wins. Still, they are the team to fear heading into the season. The free agent acquisitions made by Boston bolstered their already solid team tremendously (Crawford, Gonzalez, Jenks, Wheeler), and had they not let All-Star catcher Victor Martinez sign with Detroit, they would have gotten a perfect A+ in that category. As much as it pains a die-hard Yankee fan like me to say it, expect a lot out of Boston in 2011.
New York Yankees:
Lineup: A+
Bullpen: A+
Rotation: C
Off-season: D
The Yankees head in to 2011 with plenty of question marks. They have the best lineup in baseball, and their bullpen is just as fearsome. Despite this, they're pitching rotation is highly vulnerable, which prevents them from being the favorites to win the division. Their offseason receives a D because they were neither able to sign Cliff Lee nor keep Andy Pettitte from retiring. If their rotation can just pitch consistently adequate, however, then their high powered offense and bullpen and take care of the rest, allowing them to possibly contend for the division.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Lineup: B
Bullpen: C-
Rotation: A-
Off-season: C-
The small market Rays cannot sustain themselves (financially) for an extended period of time. Because of this, Rays ownership was forced to reduce the team payroll (which was at an all-time high) after 2010. Their off-season fire sale essentially stripped them off their entire bullpen, and caused them to part with their All-Star outfielder, Carl Crawford. Despite this, the Rays still have potential. They added to reliable bats in Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to compensate for the losses of Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Jason Bartlett. Also, although the loss of Matt Garza will put a noticeable dent in their pitching, their rotation will still be very good, as top prospect Jeremy Hellickson will take Garza's place. Look for the Rays to hang tough throughout the season.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Lineup: B-
Bullpen: B
Rotation: B
Off-season: B+
Toronto surprised many in 2011. The team led the majors in home runs, and their pitching was also solid. Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos miraculously unloaded the albatross-like contract of overpaid and underachieving Vernon Wells, therefore making their off-season a success. In addition, Anthopoulos added speed (in the form of Rajai Davis) and bullpen strength (Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel) to compensate for the loss of Shaun Marcum and Scott Downs. Their phenom prospect Kyle Drabek will vie for a spot in the rotation as well. In all, they aren't particularly weak in any category, making them a team capable of winning around 85 wins.
Baltimore Orioles:
Lineup: A-
Bullpen: C-
Rotation: B-
Off-season: B+
In an attempt to revitalize an organization in desperate need of a face lift, Baltimore management stocked up their lineup with dangerous hitters. Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee and J.J. Hardy add talent and experience to an already solid Baltimore offense. Kevin Gregg and Justin Duchscherer also add stability to the pitching core. This, in addition to Buck Showalter's talented management (he went 34-23 to finish out last season), has Baltimore poised to finish at .500 for the first time since 1997. Expect Showalter to win his third Manager of the Year Award in 2011.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Beasts of the East: Yankees vs Boston Comparison (Part IV)
Last week's comparison shed light on the emaciated Yankee starting rotation. It also has become evident that the Boston starting pitching is vastly superior to the Yankee staff in terms of reliability and talent. Despite this, the Yankee bullpen has already been proclaimed as the best in baseball. With new addition Rafael Soriano adding his credentials to a 'pen that already houses Mariano River, New York seems poised to live up to this claim. How do the bullpens of the two AL East heavyweights compare? In the final comparison, we find out...
Closer:
Yankees: Mariano Rivera
Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera is truly a wonder to behold. The All-Time ERA leader, Rivera, 41, seems to laugh in the face of Father Time. His game has not diminished at all since he stormed into the MLB in 1995. On the contrary, it seems like he gets better with age. This is a scary thought, considering the fact that Mariano Rivera was already considered the best closer of All-Time around 6 years ago. In 2010, Rivera had another phenomenal season and, in what seems to be inevitable every year, earned a trip to the All-Star game. The 11-time All-Star recorded 33 saves in 66 innings pitched, and had an immaculate ERA of 1.80. Incredibly, Rivera struck out 45 batters and only walked 11 others. The question of "How long can Mariano keep it up?" is moot; look for him to have another great year in 2011. Papelbon's 2010 season was vastly different from Rivera's. It seems that the Boston pundits' fear of Papelbon burning out quickly was realized: Papelbon had an abysmal season. Pabelpon had 8 blown saves, 7 losses, and a high ERA (for a closer) of 3.90, a career worst. Pabelbon has a lot to prove to the Red Sox if he wants to remain their closer, as it seems that Daniel Bard is more than ready to take his place.
Edge:
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera is unarguably better than Pabelbon, and is still the best closer in baseball. Age is not a factor in judging Rivera. His cutter (one of the nastiest pitches ever thrown) still chops up more wood than a lumberjack, and his control seems to improve with age. Pabelbon, on the other hand, seems to be losing his stuff. His fastball's velocity had dropped about 3 MPH last season, and because of this, he has become far easier to hit.
Setup Man:
Yankees: Rafael Soriano
Red Sox: Daniel Bard
In his first season in pinstripes, Rafael Soriano looks to repeat his dominant 2010 campaign (league high 45 saves, 1.75 ERA, .802 WHIP). Soriano has been consistently good throughout his career, so its pretty safe to assume he will become an excellent bridge to Mariano. Bard, like Soriano, had an incredible season last year. In only his second season in the Majors, the 25 year old with the golden arm became one of the most feared relievers in baseball. He recorded 76 strikeouts in 74.2 innings pitched (9.2 K's per 9 innings), and had an excellent ERA of 1.93. What's more incredible is his fastball, which can hit 101 MPH. Hitters will be wary of Bard come opening day.
Edge:
Neither (push)
Both pitchers are top echelon relievers with incredible "stuff". Likewise, both had identical stats in 2010. Therefore, neither has an edge over the other. Both should have All-Star caliber seasons in 2011.
Middle Relief:
Yankees: David Robertson
Red Sox: Bobby Jenks
David Robertson has been affectionately called "Houdini" by his teammates after he miraculously pitched out of a bases-loaded, no out situation against the Twins in the 2009 ALDS. Since then, the young 25 year old has blossomed into a reliable reliever. Robertson overcame a rough start in 2010, and had a superb second half (61.1 innings pitched, 3.82 ERA, 71 K's in 2010). Robertson has an incrdible knack of striking out batters (10.4 k's per 9 innings). In fact, his strikeout per 9 inning ratio of 13 in 2009 was the best in the majors. Look for Robertson to stabilize the 7th inning this season. Bobby Jenk's season was not as glamorous as Robrtson's. The former All-Star posted career worsts in ERA (4.44) and WHIP (1.367). In his first season in Boston, Jenks looks to rebound.
Edge:
David Robertson
Bobby Jenks is a well known pitcher. Because of this, people might impulsively believe him to be better than the relatively unknown Robertson. The fact of the matter is, however, that Robertson is a pitcher of the same mold as Jenks who had a better 2010. He is also 4 years younger. Therefore, he has the advantage.
Long Relief:
Yankees: Joba Chamberlain (probably)
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield
In all likelihood Joba Chamberlain will serve as both a long relief and middle relief pitcher in 2011. Considering what he was poised to become, however, has made him a huge disappointment. In 2007, Joba was nigh unhittable, and was thought of as the heir apparent of Mariano. After a shoulder injury in 2008, his pitches decreased in effectiveness. Since then, he has became a shell of his former self. In 2010, he recorded an ERA of 4.40 in 71.2 innings pitched, with 77 strikeouts. He still has a penchant for striking out batters, but has suffered from severe inconsistency. Wakefield, like Joba, had a lackluster season in 2010. The 43 year old had an awful ERA of 5.34 in 140 innings pitched last season. The knuckleballer has never been particularly dominant at any point in his career either (4.38 career ERA), so expect an average season from him in 2011.
Edge:
Joba Chamberlain
Neither pitchers are particularly good, but Joba is far younger and has more potential. Hence, he gets the advantage. If Joba can somehow turn back the clock to 2007, then the Yankees' bullpen will be untouchable.
Specialists:
Yankees: Boone Logan/Pedro Feliciano
Red Sox: Dan Wheeler/Scott Atchison
Lefties Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano will serve as the specialist tandem in the Yankee bullpen. Logan, 25, had a surprise season in 2010. In his first year in pinstripes, Logan posted a fantastic ERA of 2.93, and struck out 38 batters and only gave up 37 hits in 40 innings pitched. Feliciano is a reliable workhorse. he has led the National League (he was a Met) in games played for the last 3 years. He also has a good career ERA of 3.31 and is a known inning eater. Expect much of the same from him this season. Dan Wheeler, although a righty, will serve as a lefty specialist for the Red Sox. In 2010, lefties only batted .154 against Wheeler. Last year, while pitching for the Rays, Wheeler recorded a more than adequate ERA of 3.35. Wheeler should get consistent work out of the Red Sox 'pen in 2011. Atchison will likely be the main lefty in the Red Sox Bullpen (unless Felix Doubront usurps his position). In 2010, he had an ERA of 4.50 in 60 innings pitched. The 34 year old will see limited action in 2011.
Edge:
Boone Logan/Pedro Feliciano
The Yankee tandem of lefties is vastly superior to the Boston specialists. Young Boone Logan made strides last year, as his velocity increased and his WHIP improved considerably; Feliciano is one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. With these two sharing the roles, the Yankees should have no problem getting tough lefty hitters out.
Upon careful scrutiny, it's clear that the Yankees do indeed have the better bullpen. The Red Sox bullpen is by no means bad, but the New York 'pen is quite possibly the best bullpen in baseball (on paper). That's a good thing considering the fact that the bullpen will likely have its hands full bailing out the rotation.
OVERALL:
The numerous comparisons made during the past four weeks reveal that the Yankees have a slightly better lineup and a better bullpen, while the Red Sox have a vastly superior rotation. Because of the discrepancy in starting pitching, Boston gets the overall edge over the Yankees in terms of ability. Had Andy Pettitte not retired, this might have have been a different story. Unfortunately for the Yanks, he did. Therefore, their rotation lost a key cog and has become considerably weaker because of this loss. Although they are the weaker team, the Yankees are in no way totally eclipsed by the Red Sox, as some experts would have you believe. They are still a dangerous team capable of 93 plus wins. Overall, I predict the Yankees to have 92 wins in 2011 and Boston to have 96 wins.
Closer:
Yankees: Mariano Rivera
Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera is truly a wonder to behold. The All-Time ERA leader, Rivera, 41, seems to laugh in the face of Father Time. His game has not diminished at all since he stormed into the MLB in 1995. On the contrary, it seems like he gets better with age. This is a scary thought, considering the fact that Mariano Rivera was already considered the best closer of All-Time around 6 years ago. In 2010, Rivera had another phenomenal season and, in what seems to be inevitable every year, earned a trip to the All-Star game. The 11-time All-Star recorded 33 saves in 66 innings pitched, and had an immaculate ERA of 1.80. Incredibly, Rivera struck out 45 batters and only walked 11 others. The question of "How long can Mariano keep it up?" is moot; look for him to have another great year in 2011. Papelbon's 2010 season was vastly different from Rivera's. It seems that the Boston pundits' fear of Papelbon burning out quickly was realized: Papelbon had an abysmal season. Pabelpon had 8 blown saves, 7 losses, and a high ERA (for a closer) of 3.90, a career worst. Pabelbon has a lot to prove to the Red Sox if he wants to remain their closer, as it seems that Daniel Bard is more than ready to take his place.
Edge:
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera is unarguably better than Pabelbon, and is still the best closer in baseball. Age is not a factor in judging Rivera. His cutter (one of the nastiest pitches ever thrown) still chops up more wood than a lumberjack, and his control seems to improve with age. Pabelbon, on the other hand, seems to be losing his stuff. His fastball's velocity had dropped about 3 MPH last season, and because of this, he has become far easier to hit.
Setup Man:
Yankees: Rafael Soriano
Red Sox: Daniel Bard
In his first season in pinstripes, Rafael Soriano looks to repeat his dominant 2010 campaign (league high 45 saves, 1.75 ERA, .802 WHIP). Soriano has been consistently good throughout his career, so its pretty safe to assume he will become an excellent bridge to Mariano. Bard, like Soriano, had an incredible season last year. In only his second season in the Majors, the 25 year old with the golden arm became one of the most feared relievers in baseball. He recorded 76 strikeouts in 74.2 innings pitched (9.2 K's per 9 innings), and had an excellent ERA of 1.93. What's more incredible is his fastball, which can hit 101 MPH. Hitters will be wary of Bard come opening day.
Edge:
Neither (push)
Both pitchers are top echelon relievers with incredible "stuff". Likewise, both had identical stats in 2010. Therefore, neither has an edge over the other. Both should have All-Star caliber seasons in 2011.
Middle Relief:
Yankees: David Robertson
Red Sox: Bobby Jenks
David Robertson has been affectionately called "Houdini" by his teammates after he miraculously pitched out of a bases-loaded, no out situation against the Twins in the 2009 ALDS. Since then, the young 25 year old has blossomed into a reliable reliever. Robertson overcame a rough start in 2010, and had a superb second half (61.1 innings pitched, 3.82 ERA, 71 K's in 2010). Robertson has an incrdible knack of striking out batters (10.4 k's per 9 innings). In fact, his strikeout per 9 inning ratio of 13 in 2009 was the best in the majors. Look for Robertson to stabilize the 7th inning this season. Bobby Jenk's season was not as glamorous as Robrtson's. The former All-Star posted career worsts in ERA (4.44) and WHIP (1.367). In his first season in Boston, Jenks looks to rebound.
Edge:
David Robertson
Bobby Jenks is a well known pitcher. Because of this, people might impulsively believe him to be better than the relatively unknown Robertson. The fact of the matter is, however, that Robertson is a pitcher of the same mold as Jenks who had a better 2010. He is also 4 years younger. Therefore, he has the advantage.
Long Relief:
Yankees: Joba Chamberlain (probably)
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield
In all likelihood Joba Chamberlain will serve as both a long relief and middle relief pitcher in 2011. Considering what he was poised to become, however, has made him a huge disappointment. In 2007, Joba was nigh unhittable, and was thought of as the heir apparent of Mariano. After a shoulder injury in 2008, his pitches decreased in effectiveness. Since then, he has became a shell of his former self. In 2010, he recorded an ERA of 4.40 in 71.2 innings pitched, with 77 strikeouts. He still has a penchant for striking out batters, but has suffered from severe inconsistency. Wakefield, like Joba, had a lackluster season in 2010. The 43 year old had an awful ERA of 5.34 in 140 innings pitched last season. The knuckleballer has never been particularly dominant at any point in his career either (4.38 career ERA), so expect an average season from him in 2011.
Edge:
Joba Chamberlain
Neither pitchers are particularly good, but Joba is far younger and has more potential. Hence, he gets the advantage. If Joba can somehow turn back the clock to 2007, then the Yankees' bullpen will be untouchable.
Specialists:
Yankees: Boone Logan/Pedro Feliciano
Red Sox: Dan Wheeler/Scott Atchison
Lefties Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano will serve as the specialist tandem in the Yankee bullpen. Logan, 25, had a surprise season in 2010. In his first year in pinstripes, Logan posted a fantastic ERA of 2.93, and struck out 38 batters and only gave up 37 hits in 40 innings pitched. Feliciano is a reliable workhorse. he has led the National League (he was a Met) in games played for the last 3 years. He also has a good career ERA of 3.31 and is a known inning eater. Expect much of the same from him this season. Dan Wheeler, although a righty, will serve as a lefty specialist for the Red Sox. In 2010, lefties only batted .154 against Wheeler. Last year, while pitching for the Rays, Wheeler recorded a more than adequate ERA of 3.35. Wheeler should get consistent work out of the Red Sox 'pen in 2011. Atchison will likely be the main lefty in the Red Sox Bullpen (unless Felix Doubront usurps his position). In 2010, he had an ERA of 4.50 in 60 innings pitched. The 34 year old will see limited action in 2011.
Edge:
Boone Logan/Pedro Feliciano
The Yankee tandem of lefties is vastly superior to the Boston specialists. Young Boone Logan made strides last year, as his velocity increased and his WHIP improved considerably; Feliciano is one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. With these two sharing the roles, the Yankees should have no problem getting tough lefty hitters out.
Upon careful scrutiny, it's clear that the Yankees do indeed have the better bullpen. The Red Sox bullpen is by no means bad, but the New York 'pen is quite possibly the best bullpen in baseball (on paper). That's a good thing considering the fact that the bullpen will likely have its hands full bailing out the rotation.
OVERALL:
The numerous comparisons made during the past four weeks reveal that the Yankees have a slightly better lineup and a better bullpen, while the Red Sox have a vastly superior rotation. Because of the discrepancy in starting pitching, Boston gets the overall edge over the Yankees in terms of ability. Had Andy Pettitte not retired, this might have have been a different story. Unfortunately for the Yanks, he did. Therefore, their rotation lost a key cog and has become considerably weaker because of this loss. Although they are the weaker team, the Yankees are in no way totally eclipsed by the Red Sox, as some experts would have you believe. They are still a dangerous team capable of 93 plus wins. Overall, I predict the Yankees to have 92 wins in 2011 and Boston to have 96 wins.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Beasts of the East: Yankees vs Boston Comparison (Part III)
Last week's analysis proved that despite the fact that Boston acquired marquee hitters Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Yankees have the better lineup. But with Andy Pettitte now retired, the Yankees pitching staff has come under intense scrutiny for its perceived lack of reliability. Which team's starting rotation is better? In this week's comparison, we find out:
The unequivocal ace of the Yankee pitching staff, Carsten Charles Sabathia, looks to have another strong season to follow up on his excellent 2010 campaign. Last year, the big lefty led the Major Leagues in wins (21) and had a very impressive ERA of 3.18 (a feat in itself, considering the fact that C.C. pitches in the brutal A.L. East). What's most impressive about C.C.'s All-Star 2010 campaign was that he battled through a nagging knee injury for much of the season and still managed to display Cy Young credentials. In the off-season, Sabathia underwent knee surgery and dropped 25 lbs, so its pretty same to assume that the phenomenal pitcher should be ready for another great season in 2011. Jon Lester, much like Sabathia, is another lefty-ace. The 2010 All-Star is coming off his best season, where he finished with 19 wins (second in the A.L.) and an ERA of 3.25 (ninth in the A.L.). Lester also has a penchant for striking out a multitude of batters, and in 2010 he struck out 225 batters in only 208 innings pitched (strikeout per 9 inning ratio of 9.736; first in the American League). Look for more of the same from Lester come 2011.
Edge:
push (neither)
These two lefty-aces have very similar numbers and pitching styles, and are both equally reliable. Sabathia has more experience and a tad more consistency but Lester is younger and strikes out more batters. Both pitchers are phenomenal number one starters regardless and neither one has a particular edge on the other.
#2 Starter:
Yankees: Phil Hughes
Red Sox: Clay Buchholz
Phil Hughes came out of the gate exceptionally strong in 2010. For the first two months of the season, Hughes was as dominant as any pitcher. He was striking out batters, and winning nearly every game he pitched. By the All-Star Break, he had a fantastic record of 11-2, with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.178 (he was named to the All-Star Team because of these numbers). Hughes' wasn't nearly as effective in the second half, however (7-6 record, 4.90 ERA). Hughes' arm seemed to tire out down the stretch, and as a result, his velocity dipped and his control was disrupted. The Yankee faithful should be wary of Hughes should he tire out prematurely in 2011. Clay Buchholz, much like Hughes, is a young fire-baller with much potential who also had an All-Star season in 2010. Buchholz, however, was consistently dominant throughout the season. He finished the season with 17 wins and an absolutely incredible ERA of 2.33 (second in the A.L.). Buchholz has become the new rising star in Boston, and, if he matches his 2010 numbers, should create a buzz in Boston.
Edge:
Clay Buchholz
Clay Buchholz has a significant edge over Phil Hughes. Hughes showed that his stamina is sub-par, and, with the Yankees canceling his inning limitations, is expected to pitch a full season. If he wears down by August, the Yankees will be in peril. Also, Hughes' performances are largely dependent on the umpires calling the games. If they give him the outside corner, he dominates. If they don't, he struggles. Buchholz, on the other hand, is far more consistent and has overall better "stuff" than Hughes.
#3 Starter:
Yankees: A.J. Burnett
Red Sox: Josh Beckett
Though A.J Burnett would like to forget about 2010, Yankee fans will need to see a stellar performance from the 34 year old right-hander in order to truly forgive and forget. Burnett's 2010 campaign was one of the worst in the entire history of the New York Yankees. His ERA of 5.26 was one of the worst a Yankee pitcher ever had when pitching that many innings (186.2). It's infuriating to see a pitcher like him struggle; his "stuff" is electric. If Burnett can get back to his normal career numbers (which are actually quite good: 3.99 ERA, 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), then his abysmal performance will be forgotten. If not, then the Yankees are in trouble because much of their success rests on the arm of the big man from Arkansas. Josh Beckett, like Burnett, is also coming off a very poor season. His ERA was actually higher than Burnett's (5.78). Unlike Burnett, Beckett actually has a legitimate excuse to his poor season: he was stymied by injuries. He only pitched in 21 games and 127.2 innings; it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see the former All-Star bounce back.
Edge:
Josh Beckett
Beckett is younger and has been known to overcome adversity with more ease than Burnett. Because of this, he gets the edge. There's no other way to put it: A.J. Burnett was absolutely awful last season. If his 2011 campaign is anything like his 2010 one, than the Yankees' chances of going to the playoffs decrease drastically.
#4 Starter:
Yankees: Ivan Nova
Red Sox: John Lackey
Because of Andy Pettitte's retirement, unproven rookie Ivan Nova has been given (probably) the critical position of the Yankees' fourth starter. Yankee scouts liked what they say from Nova last year. What they saw, however, was only a small sample size of a still unproven pitcher. Nova only threw 42 innings last year. Because of this, it's anyone's guess as to how the 24 year old will pitch in his first full season in the Majors (under a lot of pressure, no less). As opposed to Nova, John Lackey is a veteran known for his reliability. Lackey has pitched in 200+ innings five times. He also has a respectable career ERA of 3.89. Unfortunately for Lackey, his numbers dipped upon moving to the hard-hitting American League East (2010 was his first season in Boston after previously playing his entire career for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim).
Edge: John Lackey
John Lackey has a notable edge over Ivan Nova. Nova is an unproven rookie, while Lackey is a durable workhorse with All-Star credentials.
#5 Starter:
Yankees: Sergio Mitre/Freddy Garcia/Bartolo Colon
Red Sox: Daisuke Matsuzaka
The fifth spot in the Yankee rotation is up for grabs. Unfortunately, three mediocre (at best) journeymen are in contention for the spot. Sergio Mitre had an alright season in 2010, but it may have solely been due to the fact that he was pitching in easy, non-pressure situations. Freddy Garcia actually had a 12 win season last year, but his high ERA (4.64), advanced age (he'll be 36 in June), and major drop in velocity may very well prevent him from being an effective pitcher in 2011. Bartolo Colon is a former Cy Young Award winner. Unfortunately for the Yankees, that was in 2005. Colon hasn't pitched in a full season since. In fact, he hasn't even pitched in the majors since 2009. Matsuzaka, the former phenom Japanese pitcher, is mercurial, as is his wont. He is coming off a mediocre season (9-6, 4.69 ERA), but he has been effective in the past.
Edge: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Neither Mitre, Garcia nor Colon can match Matsuzaka. While none of these four pitchers inspire much confidence, Matsuzaka is still more reliable than the consistently mediocre Mitre, the decrepit Garcia, and the has-been Colon.
While the hitting lineups of both teams were somewhat even, the starting rotations aren't even in the same stratosphere. The Red Sox clearly have the better rotation, as the Yankees are emaciated by mediocrity and unreliability. The Red Sox have plenty of reliable veterans, and are eminently superior to the Yankees in terms of starting pitching.
**(the rotations for both teams have not yet been finalized; these rotations are estimations of the eventually opening-day roster)**
#1 Starter:
Yankees: C.C. Sabathia
Red Sox: Jon Lester
Edge:
push (neither)
These two lefty-aces have very similar numbers and pitching styles, and are both equally reliable. Sabathia has more experience and a tad more consistency but Lester is younger and strikes out more batters. Both pitchers are phenomenal number one starters regardless and neither one has a particular edge on the other.
#2 Starter:
Yankees: Phil Hughes
Red Sox: Clay Buchholz
Phil Hughes came out of the gate exceptionally strong in 2010. For the first two months of the season, Hughes was as dominant as any pitcher. He was striking out batters, and winning nearly every game he pitched. By the All-Star Break, he had a fantastic record of 11-2, with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.178 (he was named to the All-Star Team because of these numbers). Hughes' wasn't nearly as effective in the second half, however (7-6 record, 4.90 ERA). Hughes' arm seemed to tire out down the stretch, and as a result, his velocity dipped and his control was disrupted. The Yankee faithful should be wary of Hughes should he tire out prematurely in 2011. Clay Buchholz, much like Hughes, is a young fire-baller with much potential who also had an All-Star season in 2010. Buchholz, however, was consistently dominant throughout the season. He finished the season with 17 wins and an absolutely incredible ERA of 2.33 (second in the A.L.). Buchholz has become the new rising star in Boston, and, if he matches his 2010 numbers, should create a buzz in Boston.
Edge:
Clay Buchholz
Clay Buchholz has a significant edge over Phil Hughes. Hughes showed that his stamina is sub-par, and, with the Yankees canceling his inning limitations, is expected to pitch a full season. If he wears down by August, the Yankees will be in peril. Also, Hughes' performances are largely dependent on the umpires calling the games. If they give him the outside corner, he dominates. If they don't, he struggles. Buchholz, on the other hand, is far more consistent and has overall better "stuff" than Hughes.
#3 Starter:
Yankees: A.J. Burnett
Red Sox: Josh Beckett
Though A.J Burnett would like to forget about 2010, Yankee fans will need to see a stellar performance from the 34 year old right-hander in order to truly forgive and forget. Burnett's 2010 campaign was one of the worst in the entire history of the New York Yankees. His ERA of 5.26 was one of the worst a Yankee pitcher ever had when pitching that many innings (186.2). It's infuriating to see a pitcher like him struggle; his "stuff" is electric. If Burnett can get back to his normal career numbers (which are actually quite good: 3.99 ERA, 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), then his abysmal performance will be forgotten. If not, then the Yankees are in trouble because much of their success rests on the arm of the big man from Arkansas. Josh Beckett, like Burnett, is also coming off a very poor season. His ERA was actually higher than Burnett's (5.78). Unlike Burnett, Beckett actually has a legitimate excuse to his poor season: he was stymied by injuries. He only pitched in 21 games and 127.2 innings; it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see the former All-Star bounce back.
Edge:
Josh Beckett
Beckett is younger and has been known to overcome adversity with more ease than Burnett. Because of this, he gets the edge. There's no other way to put it: A.J. Burnett was absolutely awful last season. If his 2011 campaign is anything like his 2010 one, than the Yankees' chances of going to the playoffs decrease drastically.
#4 Starter:
Yankees: Ivan Nova
Red Sox: John Lackey
Because of Andy Pettitte's retirement, unproven rookie Ivan Nova has been given (probably) the critical position of the Yankees' fourth starter. Yankee scouts liked what they say from Nova last year. What they saw, however, was only a small sample size of a still unproven pitcher. Nova only threw 42 innings last year. Because of this, it's anyone's guess as to how the 24 year old will pitch in his first full season in the Majors (under a lot of pressure, no less). As opposed to Nova, John Lackey is a veteran known for his reliability. Lackey has pitched in 200+ innings five times. He also has a respectable career ERA of 3.89. Unfortunately for Lackey, his numbers dipped upon moving to the hard-hitting American League East (2010 was his first season in Boston after previously playing his entire career for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim).
Edge: John Lackey
John Lackey has a notable edge over Ivan Nova. Nova is an unproven rookie, while Lackey is a durable workhorse with All-Star credentials.
#5 Starter:
Yankees: Sergio Mitre/Freddy Garcia/Bartolo Colon
Red Sox: Daisuke Matsuzaka
The fifth spot in the Yankee rotation is up for grabs. Unfortunately, three mediocre (at best) journeymen are in contention for the spot. Sergio Mitre had an alright season in 2010, but it may have solely been due to the fact that he was pitching in easy, non-pressure situations. Freddy Garcia actually had a 12 win season last year, but his high ERA (4.64), advanced age (he'll be 36 in June), and major drop in velocity may very well prevent him from being an effective pitcher in 2011. Bartolo Colon is a former Cy Young Award winner. Unfortunately for the Yankees, that was in 2005. Colon hasn't pitched in a full season since. In fact, he hasn't even pitched in the majors since 2009. Matsuzaka, the former phenom Japanese pitcher, is mercurial, as is his wont. He is coming off a mediocre season (9-6, 4.69 ERA), but he has been effective in the past.
Edge: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Neither Mitre, Garcia nor Colon can match Matsuzaka. While none of these four pitchers inspire much confidence, Matsuzaka is still more reliable than the consistently mediocre Mitre, the decrepit Garcia, and the has-been Colon.
While the hitting lineups of both teams were somewhat even, the starting rotations aren't even in the same stratosphere. The Red Sox clearly have the better rotation, as the Yankees are emaciated by mediocrity and unreliability. The Red Sox have plenty of reliable veterans, and are eminently superior to the Yankees in terms of starting pitching.
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